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周二，7月27日，做地铁看报时，读到关于计算机世界评论腾讯的问题。我没有读过计算机世界写的原文。但大致的内容报上还是略有写到。 当时我就和朋友说，这是个说不清的问题。看事的角度不一样，结果就不一样。 当时有一句话很有道理：大公司创造新的东西，其他人模仿，互联网本身就是这样。 其他人模仿成功，不代表他就是不好，他的成功一定有他的原因，以及一小部分的创新等。 最新一期计算机世界的封面报道是《“狗日的”腾讯》，看上去很生猛。用Keso的话说，就是起了个极具轰动效应的名字，但“实际上这篇报道也没写出什么新东西，不过是把互联网行业流传已久的‘全民公敌’的说法，给具体化了一下，迎合了一把所谓的‘民意’，属于比较讨巧的报道。” 不过关注点不在报道是否讨巧，而在于腾讯的创新问题，这让我想起了智猪博弈。智猪博弈是一个著名的纳什均衡例子：猪圈有大猪小猪，任一猪可选耗2份 体力踩食槽踏板，放出10份饲料。小猪踩，可食1份，大猪得食9份。大猪踩，可食7份，小猪得食3份。问大猪小猪各应采取何策略？ 答案是：小猪选择等待，让大猪去按控制按钮，而自己选择“坐船”(或称为搭便车)。因为—— 当小猪踩动踏板时，大猪会在小猪跑到食槽之前会吃光绝大部分食物，除减去劳动耗费，小猪净亏损1个单位，大猪净得9个单位； 若是大猪踩动了踏板，则有机会在小猪吃完落下的食物之前跑到食槽，争吃到半数以上的残羹，小猪净得3个单位，大猪净得5个单位。 于是我们看到一个现象：大猪忙不迭地踩了踏板后，赶忙跑回抢食物，而小猪则静候在食槽边“坐船”、“捡漏儿”。如此往复。 “小猪躺着大猪跑”的现象是由于故事中的游戏规则所导致的。规则的核心指标是：每次落下的食物数量和踏板与投食口之间的距离。 方案一：减量方案。投食仅原来的一半分量。结果是小猪大猪都不去踩踏板了。谁踩谁吃不到。 方案二：增量方案。投食为原来的一倍分量。结果是小猪、大猪都会去踩踏板。谁想吃，谁就会去踩踏板。谁踩都有足够的吃。 方案三：减量加移位方案。投食仅原来的一半分量，但同时将投食口移到踏板附近。结果呢，小猪和大猪都在拼命地抢着踩踏板。等待者不得食，而多劳者多得。每次的收获刚好消费完。 微软中国的刘润对智猪博弈增加了一个注解： 小公司如小猪。的确，在游戏的最开始，一定会有敏感的小猪发现会带来食物的踏板机关，于是第一轮是小猪去踩踏板，或者大猪小猪一起踩。等到聪明的小猪发现 原来博弈的结果注定亏损，于是进入第二轮——“小猪躺着大猪跑”。等到游戏规则改变，不思进取的小猪突然发现“等待者不得食”，这时的破口大骂多半因为失 去第三轮资格的愤怒。 其实创新问题，说到底是创新的成本问题，无关是疼讯还是痒讯。创新也犹如踩踏板，无论腾讯还是其他大小公司都在计算成本。踩了踏板却没抢到多少食物的小猪，如果大骂大猪抢食，明显是智慧不足导致的恼羞成怒。大连做电子商务的Leon liu说了一句话很实在：“你知道腾讯的核心优势是什么吗？有人说是模仿，有人说是创新，腾讯人自己的回答是：耐心。”腾讯最核心的竞争力是耐心，懂得在合适的时间推出合适的产品。 我们总在崇拜国外的互联网生态环境比较好，那是因为他们的游戏规则已经更接近方案二或方案三了。事实上，《“狗日的”腾讯》并非谩骂，尾声的一句话说到了关键：“腾讯庞大的身躯，依然潜伏着诸多暗流”。腾讯本身被很多东西裹挟，鸭梨很大，而且也意识到自己的危机。是啊，有智慧的猪都知道：当踏板与投食口间距较远，小猪策略的收益比最高。 可是，但凡是有别的办法，谁又愿意做大猪呢？(作者:Lorna) 以上文章引自：http://lazylorna.com/archives/1658 本人相当的欣赏大猪小猪的例子。发人深思~! Share on Facebook

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This Article is from Danny at Whiteboard Friday. I don’t know if there is many people like me, want to do a job what I am interested in and what I am doing now. It’s not so easy to get the samoue kind job as you thoughts. So when I saw this article, I hope [...]

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As i said before I am a student and learning driving now. Everything made me to think is it Chinese social custom? Full of Money, Relationship, Cigarette, Expensive Food? That’s the story. First, I found many Pre-registers of Driving School in Nanjing and University. There is nearly 2800RMB, 50RMB less or more. So it’s ok [...]

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If you are working on Shopping Website, you should notice this, and check out what do they have to have the success, as well as why don’t you so success on online shopping Website. And all the data is from Chinese not international. No1. 糯米网 www.nuomi.com RMB 724,800,000 No2. 美团 www.meituan.com RMB 618,400,000 No3. F团爱赴网 [...]

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How in you are? How many popular website you know? Come and see top 50 popular websites. If you are interesting try to browser them and figure out how many y ou know and love. 1.古歌 Google.com www.google.com 2.亚苦 Yahoo.com www.yahoo.com 3.有图标哦 Youtube.com www.youtube.com 4.直播 Live.com www.live.com 5.非死不可 Facebook.com www.facebook.com 6.没商量 Msn.com www.msn.com 7.危机 Wikipedia.org [...]

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It’s easy to follow Yelpshop Blog on different SNS. List some: Add Me On Facebook Add Me On LinkedIn Add Me On Twitter Meet Me ON Flickr Meet Me ON Last.FM Google Buzz You can add my site’s url (blog.yelpshop.com) into Google Reader. Then you can read the newest blog in my blog as soon [...]

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I want to know Perl for a long time. As I know, it’s the earlier and powerful language. I don’t want to master it, just you know, know some thing about it to open my eyes to more web design language. So this article is good for me, basic knowledge. Abstract Learning how to program [...]

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JQuery is one of the most popular language in Web design. In my experient, I use JQuery to solve some data update without changing url (jump). It just use as JavaScript. This article is how to enhance form input fields with JQuery. I think it’s helpful and easy. Try it by yourself. jQuery makes it [...]

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Are you trying to learn and get well know about SEO. This article is for SEOer, what’s next step. I am still on my way of SEO Road, If you have your own way of SEO, welcome to comment later to share them with public. Now you can read more about how to develop yourself [...]

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I am bloging now, but I really don’t know how exactly to run and build a perfect blog for me and other readers. But I know I would love to do my best to improve my blog to meet readers needs. I know I would love to do everything to try to improve my blog’s [...]

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